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Probabilities

 
EN
 
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EN
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04 February 2018 07:17
 
Skipshot - 03 February 2018 02:51 PM
EN - 03 February 2018 12:05 PM
Skipshot - 02 February 2018 10:19 PM
EN - 02 February 2018 05:17 PM

What is the probability that “God” exists?

God is made up, so the probability is zero.

You don’t know that, Skip.  You can’t just assume the very point in question and then rearrange the problem to fit your answer.

I did not do it, you did, and it has been pointed out by others.

EN - 03 February 2018 12:05 PM

Intelligence at the foundation of the universe is a real possibility, so the probability cannot be zero.

This is an assumption, not a possibility.  Don’t do this, because then you must give every assumption a ranking of possibility, including the Butt Fairy, and without a way to test an assumption there is no way to assign a probability, so the probability remains zero.


No.  The probability remains unknown or perhaps undefined.  Zero probability means that there is no set of circumstances in which something might occur or be true.

 
EN
 
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EN
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04 February 2018 07:23
 
Jefe - 03 February 2018 01:54 PM
EN - 03 February 2018 12:11 PM

In reality, figuring the probability is impossible. When Vegas sets odds on the Super Bowl or the Kentucky Derby, they have lots of history and lots of outcomes and lots of information to put into the formula.  With respect to God (intelligent creator, no particular flavor), we don’t have all that.

But we do.  Thousands of discarded mythologies that are no longer considered serious or relevant, but inside of which people had described experiences, levitations, Hosanahs, raptures, etc….  all related to their (now discarded) religious mythology.  The ‘probability’ of current monotheistic mythologies being any less ‘made-up’ than previously discarded faiths is what?  50/50?

Discarded mythologies are simply discarded theories about the nature of the creative intelligence underlying (possibly) the universe.  That does not count as much of a baseline.  We know 1000s of things that it is not.  We don’t know what it is.  If the answer is one billion and all I know is that it is not anything from 1-10,000, that does give me much info.  I still can’t calculate the probability.

 
jdrnd
 
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jdrnd
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04 February 2018 07:35
 
EN - 04 February 2018 07:23 AM

Discarded mythologies are simply discarded theories about the nature of the creative intelligence underlying (possibly) the universe.

For one they are not discarded.
They are mythologies.
They were made up stories, not theories or even hypothesis.
Made up stories because the means to understand our universe were limited.

EN,
This is the 21st century.
We know these were stories, and they are “entertaining” stories, but they are just stories.
We don’t need to make up stories about the universe anymore.

 
GAD
 
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GAD
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04 February 2018 09:49
 
jdrnd - 03 February 2018 08:21 PM
GAD - 03 February 2018 05:30 PM

Late to the thread, but you boys handled it beautifully!

 

or as En suggested, the handling of the premise of the opening post could just be a simulation.

I am fascinated (amused?) by EN’s statements that if god turned out to be an alien or now computer SW that he would still be in awe (his word for worship) of it. That speaks to some deep need to have been created by something for some purpose.

 
 
EN
 
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EN
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04 February 2018 10:36
 
GAD - 04 February 2018 09:49 AM
jdrnd - 03 February 2018 08:21 PM
GAD - 03 February 2018 05:30 PM

Late to the thread, but you boys handled it beautifully!

 

or as En suggested, the handling of the premise of the opening post could just be a simulation.

I am fascinated (amused?) by EN’s statements that if god turned out to be an alien or now computer SW that he would still be in awe (his word for worship) of it. That speaks to some deep need to have been created by something for some purpose.

m

You wouldn’t be in awe of an intelligence that was able to create this universe ?  Maybe I’m easily awed.  I get awed by sunsets and starry nights in the desert.  Supreme intelligence would blow my mind.  That’s the way I’m built, I guess.

 
SkepticX
 
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SkepticX
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04 February 2018 11:08
 
GAD - 04 February 2018 09:49 AM
jdrnd - 03 February 2018 08:21 PM
GAD - 03 February 2018 05:30 PM

Late to the thread, but you boys handled it beautifully!

or as En suggested, the handling of the premise of the opening post could just be a simulation.

I am fascinated (amused?) by EN’s statements that if god turned out to be an alien or now computer SW that he would still be in awe (his word for worship) of it. That speaks to some deep need to have been created by something for some purpose.


Or a justification for the investment.

 
 
GAD
 
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GAD
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04 February 2018 14:24
 
EN - 04 February 2018 10:36 AM
GAD - 04 February 2018 09:49 AM
jdrnd - 03 February 2018 08:21 PM
GAD - 03 February 2018 05:30 PM

Late to the thread, but you boys handled it beautifully!

 

or as En suggested, the handling of the premise of the opening post could just be a simulation.

I am fascinated (amused?) by EN’s statements that if god turned out to be an alien or now computer SW that he would still be in awe (his word for worship) of it. That speaks to some deep need to have been created by something for some purpose.

m

You wouldn’t be in awe of an intelligence that was able to create this universe ?  Maybe I’m easily awed.  I get awed by sunsets and starry nights in the desert.  Supreme intelligence would blow my mind.  That’s the way I’m built, I guess.

That is a big difference between us, you want to have been created so you have some purpose and something to worship, while I find the idea of being created and worshiping it repugnant.

 
 
EN
 
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EN
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04 February 2018 16:01
 
GAD - 04 February 2018 02:24 PM
EN - 04 February 2018 10:36 AM
GAD - 04 February 2018 09:49 AM
jdrnd - 03 February 2018 08:21 PM
GAD - 03 February 2018 05:30 PM

Late to the thread, but you boys handled it beautifully!

 

or as En suggested, the handling of the premise of the opening post could just be a simulation.

I am fascinated (amused?) by EN’s statements that if god turned out to be an alien or now computer SW that he would still be in awe (his word for worship) of it. That speaks to some deep need to have been created by something for some purpose.

m

You wouldn’t be in awe of an intelligence that was able to create this universe ?  Maybe I’m easily awed.  I get awed by sunsets and starry nights in the desert.  Supreme intelligence would blow my mind.  That’s the way I’m built, I guess.

That is a big difference between us, you want to have been created so you have some purpose and something to worship, while I find the idea of being created and worshiping it repugnant.

When did I say I wanted to have been created?  You said that.

 
Jan_CAN
 
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Jan_CAN
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04 February 2018 16:39
 

Odds on that God exists, says scientist
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2004/mar/08/highereducation.uk1
A scientist has calculated that there is a 67% chance that God exists.


Computing the Probability of God
http://www.patheos.com/blogs/crossexamined/2014/04/computing-the-probability-of-god/
The probability of God is now basically zero ...

 
 
EN
 
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EN
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05 February 2018 04:54
 
Jan_CAN - 04 February 2018 04:39 PM

Odds on that God exists, says scientist
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2004/mar/08/highereducation.uk1
A scientist has calculated that there is a 67% chance that God exists.


Computing the Probability of God
http://www.patheos.com/blogs/crossexamined/2014/04/computing-the-probability-of-god/
The probability of God is now basically zero ...

Both of these computations contain value-based assumptions.  The probability of God’s existence (remember, no particular god, just a creative intelligence ) is impossible to calculate.  But thanks for the examples.

 
Antisocialdarwinist
 
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Antisocialdarwinist
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05 February 2018 08:26
 
EN - 03 February 2018 12:12 PM
Antisocialdarwinist - 03 February 2018 11:37 AM
EN - 02 February 2018 05:17 PM

What is the probability that “God” exists? Assume that “God” means some form of Creator (no particular denomination).  How to figure the probability?  Impossible. We don’t know what is required to bring a universe into being. The possibilities are “a creator is not needed” and “a creator is needed”.  So, is 50/50 the appropriate probability?  Hard to say.  We simply don’t have enough knowledge to determine what is required.

I’m inviting people to give their thoughts on probabilities, but I’d especially like to hear from mathematicians.  Thanks.

Mathematicians won’t help you. Whatever probability you assign to the existence of God—from zero to a hundred to anything in between—is based purely on belief, since there’s no evidence to support any specific probability.

Agreed. I just wanted the math dudes to weigh in on the basics of probabilities. burt is a mathematician, and a gambler, so I wanted his input.

Maybe he can weigh in on how many angels fit on the head of a pin, too.

 
 
GAD
 
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GAD
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05 February 2018 08:33
 
EN - 05 February 2018 04:54 AM
Jan_CAN - 04 February 2018 04:39 PM

Odds on that God exists, says scientist
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2004/mar/08/highereducation.uk1
A scientist has calculated that there is a 67% chance that God exists.


Computing the Probability of God
http://www.patheos.com/blogs/crossexamined/2014/04/computing-the-probability-of-god/
The probability of God is now basically zero ...

Both of these computations contain value-based assumptions.  The probability of God’s existence (remember, no particular god, just a creative intelligence ) is impossible to calculate.  But thanks for the examples.

But the probability of make-believe gods is easy to calculate.

 
 
EN
 
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EN
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05 February 2018 10:55
 
Antisocialdarwinist - 05 February 2018 08:26 AM
EN - 03 February 2018 12:12 PM
Antisocialdarwinist - 03 February 2018 11:37 AM
EN - 02 February 2018 05:17 PM

What is the probability that “God” exists? Assume that “God” means some form of Creator (no particular denomination).  How to figure the probability?  Impossible. We don’t know what is required to bring a universe into being. The possibilities are “a creator is not needed” and “a creator is needed”.  So, is 50/50 the appropriate probability?  Hard to say.  We simply don’t have enough knowledge to determine what is required.

I’m inviting people to give their thoughts on probabilities, but I’d especially like to hear from mathematicians.  Thanks.

Mathematicians won’t help you. Whatever probability you assign to the existence of God—from zero to a hundred to anything in between—is based purely on belief, since there’s no evidence to support any specific probability.

Agreed. I just wanted the math dudes to weigh in on the basics of probabilities. burt is a mathematician, and a gambler, so I wanted his input.

Maybe he can weigh in on how many angels fit on the head of a pin, too.

burt probably has an opinion on that.

 
hannahtoo
 
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hannahtoo
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05 February 2018 12:10
 

EN:
Intelligence at the foundation of the universe is a real possibility

Emergence.  There were no particles at the very beginning of the universe, but they came to be.  There were no atoms nor molecules, but they came to be.  There were no organisms nor consciousness, but they came to be.  So the same for intelligence, but it came to be.  That, to me, is more awesome than a creator and makes the existence of human life just plain amazing, not to be taken for granted.

 
ubique13
 
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ubique13
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05 February 2018 12:49
 
hannahtoo - 05 February 2018 12:10 PM

EN:
Intelligence at the foundation of the universe is a real possibility

Emergence.  There were no particles at the very beginning of the universe, but they came to be.  There were no atoms nor molecules, but they came to be.  There were no organisms nor consciousness, but they came to be.  So the same for intelligence, but it came to be.  That, to me, is more awesome than a creator and makes the existence of human life just plain amazing, not to be taken for granted.

This general concept is the most compelling theory of any kind of universal objectivity that would seem to be demonstrable based on all that can be measured, studied, or analyzed.

To quote the late Bill Hicks:
Always that same LSD story, you’ve all seen it. “Young man on acid, thought he could fly, jumped out of a building. What a tragedy.” What a dick! Fuck him, he’s an idiot. If he thought he could fly, why didn’t he take off on the ground first? Check it out. You don’t see ducks lined up to catch elevators to fly south — they fly from the ground, ya moron, quit ruining it for everybody. He’s a moron, he’s dead — good, we lost a moron, fuckin’ celebrate. Wow, I just felt the world get lighter. We lost a moron! I don’t mean to sound cold, or cruel, or vicious, but I am, so that’s the way it comes out. Professional help is being sought. How about a positive LSD story? Wouldn’t that be news —worthy, just the once? To base your decision on information rather than scare tactics and superstition and lies? I think it would be news-worthy. “Today, a young man on acid realized that all matter is merely energy condensed to a slow vibration. That we are all one consciousness experiencing itself subjectively. There is no such thing as death, life is only a dream and we’re the imagination of ourselves” . . . “Here’s Tom with the weather.”

 

 
 
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