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WTF NOAA?!

 
TheAnal_lyticPhilosopher
 
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TheAnal_lyticPhilosopher
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12 September 2018 12:53
 

According to the National Weather Service, I have a 50% chance of “showers” on Saturday and a 60% chance of “showers likely” on Sunday—a pretty typical weekend, no big deal.  According to the National Hurricane Center, I can expect anywhere from 2-4 or 4-6 inches of rain, depending on where the dividing band from Hurricane Florence plays out (I’m right on the edge).  Now, I get the inherent unknowns in predicting the weather, but what the hell.  Do I have typical weekend weather coming up, with a more or less even chance of showers, or do I have a potentially record soaking event coming up, brought on by a hurricane? 

These forecasts are from the same government agency—NOAA.  Are they even talking to each other?

[ Edited: 12 September 2018 12:58 by TheAnal_lyticPhilosopher]
 
EN
 
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EN
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12 September 2018 13:19
 

Weather is the perfect profession - you can be consistently inconsistent and woefully wrong and still have a job.

 
GAD
 
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GAD
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12 September 2018 17:49
 
EN - 12 September 2018 01:19 PM

Weather is the perfect profession - you can be consistently inconsistent and woefully wrong and still have a job.

That’s any government job.

 
 
Skipshot
 
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Skipshot
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12 September 2018 22:23
 

Millions of people are literally running for their lives and hope they have a house left when they return, and you want to make it about blaming a government weather reporting agency for an inconsistency which may slightly inconvenience your weekend?

Are you serious?

 
TheAnal_lyticPhilosopher
 
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TheAnal_lyticPhilosopher
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13 September 2018 04:33
 
Skipshot - 12 September 2018 10:23 PM

Millions of people are literally running for their lives and hope they have a house left when they return, and you want to make it about blaming a government weather reporting agency for an inconsistency which may slightly inconvenience your weekend?

Are you serious?

Good god.  Talk about presumptions, projecting, and missing the point.

It so happens the inconsistency was even worse at ground zero, where people are hoping to have a house to return to.  When that post was written, for the weekend The National Weather Service said “Hurricane Conditions Possible” with “new rainfall amounts in excess of 4 inches.” The National Hurricane Center said rainfall in excess of 20 or 25 inches.  These are not sensibly different forecasts, and so the original question stands: are these two branches of the same agency even talking to each other?

Also, as it happens, if I get 6 inches of rain, the new French drains we had installed in the yard may not work as we hope.  They’ve worked so far, but they’ve never been tested with this kind of deluge.  As a precaution, if it’s gong to be something like 6, I need to stay home to keep the water out of my basement (we had a trip planned this weekend).  Thousands of dollars are at stake.  So f*ck you.  It’s not simply a matter of “slightly inconvenience” my weekend, though prudently, the inconsistency is neither here nor there because like everyone else, I’m preparing for the worst.

In any case, the problem seems “fixed” now.  Twelve hours before the event the forecasts have converged for those folks at ground zero.  I suspect there is some quirk in how these forecasts are templated that prevents information from one informing the other until temporally the best available information de facto converges. For events like this, they really should do better.  My area, for instance, still suffers from the same problem because the event is still several days out…

 

[ Edited: 13 September 2018 06:01 by TheAnal_lyticPhilosopher]
 
Skipshot
 
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Skipshot
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13 September 2018 07:16
 
TheAnal_lyticPhilosopher - 13 September 2018 04:33 AM
Skipshot - 12 September 2018 10:23 PM

Millions of people are literally running for their lives and hope they have a house left when they return, and you want to make it about blaming a government weather reporting agency for an inconsistency which may slightly inconvenience your weekend?

Are you serious?

Good god.  Talk about presumptions, projecting, and missing the point.

It so happens the inconsistency was even worse at ground zero, where people are hoping to have a house to return to.  When that post was written, for the weekend The National Weather Service said “Hurricane Conditions Possible” with “new rainfall amounts in excess of 4 inches.” The National Hurricane Center said rainfall in excess of 20 or 25 inches.  These are not sensibly different forecasts, and so the original question stands: are these two branches of the same agency even talking to each other?

Also, as it happens, if I get 6 inches of rain, the new French drains we had installed in the yard may not work as we hope.  They’ve worked so far, but they’ve never been tested with this kind of deluge.  As a precaution, if it’s gong to be something like 6, I need to stay home to keep the water out of my basement (we had a trip planned this weekend).  Thousands of dollars are at stake.  So f*ck you.  It’s not simply a matter of “slightly inconvenience” my weekend, though prudently, the inconsistency is neither here nor there because like everyone else, I’m preparing for the worst.

In any case, the problem seems “fixed” now.  Twelve hours before the event the forecasts have converged for those folks at ground zero.  I suspect there is some quirk in how these forecasts are templated that prevents information from one informing the other until temporally the best available information de facto converges. For events like this, they really should do better.  My area, for instance, still suffers from the same problem because the event is still several days out…

Oh, now you explain why you are concerned, and blame me for not reading your mind..  In bold above is the solution to your problem - prepare for the worst, hope for the best.  And stop blaming the weatherman for not knowing exactly how much rain will fall on your house from an oncoming hurricane.

My original post still stands.

 
LadyJane
 
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LadyJane
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13 September 2018 07:34
 
TheAnal_lyticPhilosopher - 13 September 2018 04:33 AM

I need to rent a pump to get the water out of my basement. Thousands of dollars of stacked books are at stake. So f*ck you.

If only there was a way to raise books high above the ground and shelve them there ‘er something.

Patent Pending.

[ Edited: 13 September 2018 07:47 by LadyJane]
 
 
GAD
 
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GAD
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13 September 2018 08:23
 

WTF and LOL indeed! Why all the hostility. You guys pine on about wanting to get “high quality posters” to come and stay on the site and have accused me of scaring off many, yet when you get one like Mr Anal who posts beautifully and shreds yours views on the threads you get all hostile and nasty. That’s rhetorical as I know that what you really want is “high quality posters” that support your views so you can say they are on your team and ride on their coat tails.

Good luck Mr Anal, hope everything works out OK with the storm and no damage done.

 
 
EN
 
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EN
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13 September 2018 09:08
 

I would say a powerful hurricane falls under the category of “prepare for the worst, hope for the best.”  The future is inherently hard to predict.

 
TheAnal_lyticPhilosopher
 
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TheAnal_lyticPhilosopher
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13 September 2018 09:42
 
LadyJane - 13 September 2018 07:34 AM
TheAnal_lyticPhilosopher - 13 September 2018 04:33 AM

I need to rent a pump to get the water out of my basement. Thousands of dollars of stacked books are at stake. So f*ck you.

If only there was a way to raise books high above the ground and shelve them there ‘er something.

Patent Pending.

Nice trick, but maybe you should quote what was clarified, not what was changed. 

It was clarified because the problem is bigger than that.  There is the carpet in that office, the furniture in there and other areas, the dry wall to the floor, and so forth.  Given where the water comes in from under the foundation in the bathroom, a pump is necessary to capture it before spreads.  In any case, unless you have a way to shelve roughly 3000 more books in a 17x13 room when the usable walls already have book shelves up, f*ck your for your presumptions as well.

And, by the way, they are already off the floor.  Just perhaps not enough to cover an event that might put, say, 4 or 5 inches of water in my basement, instead of the carpet soaking half-inch, like last time.  It’s hard to believe, isn’t it, that I would initially focus on what I value most at the expense, perhaps, of expressing the rest of the problem.

 

 

 
TheAnal_lyticPhilosopher
 
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TheAnal_lyticPhilosopher
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13 September 2018 09:58
 
Skipshot - 13 September 2018 07:16 AM
TheAnal_lyticPhilosopher - 13 September 2018 04:33 AM
Skipshot - 12 September 2018 10:23 PM

Millions of people are literally running for their lives and hope they have a house left when they return, and you want to make it about blaming a government weather reporting agency for an inconsistency which may slightly inconvenience your weekend?

Are you serious?

Good god.  Talk about presumptions, projecting, and missing the point.

It so happens the inconsistency was even worse at ground zero, where people are hoping to have a house to return to.  When that post was written, for the weekend The National Weather Service said “Hurricane Conditions Possible” with “new rainfall amounts in excess of 4 inches.” The National Hurricane Center said rainfall in excess of 20 or 25 inches.  These are not sensibly different forecasts, and so the original question stands: are these two branches of the same agency even talking to each other?

Also, as it happens, if I get 6 inches of rain, the new French drains we had installed in the yard may not work as we hope.  They’ve worked so far, but they’ve never been tested with this kind of deluge.  As a precaution, if it’s gong to be something like 6, I need to stay home to keep the water out of my basement (we had a trip planned this weekend).  Thousands of dollars are at stake.  So f*ck you.  It’s not simply a matter of “slightly inconvenience” my weekend, though prudently, the inconsistency is neither here nor there because like everyone else, I’m preparing for the worst.

In any case, the problem seems “fixed” now.  Twelve hours before the event the forecasts have converged for those folks at ground zero.  I suspect there is some quirk in how these forecasts are templated that prevents information from one informing the other until temporally the best available information de facto converges. For events like this, they really should do better.  My area, for instance, still suffers from the same problem because the event is still several days out…

Oh, now you explain why you are concerned, and blame me for not reading your mind..  In bold above is the solution to your problem - prepare for the worst, hope for the best.  And stop blaming the weatherman for not knowing exactly how much rain will fall on your house from an oncoming hurricane.

My original post still stands.

No, I pointed out you were making assumptions and missing the point because of them. 

The “WTF” in the original post was not intended to express outrage over uncertainty in my preparations, but simply faux-outrage over the absurdity of two government departments in the same weather reporting agency not coordinating their efforts.  I brought my situation up simply to show that these kinds of absurdities don’t occur in a consequence-free vacuum, even as I said in bringing them up that the inconsistency itself didn’t effect me personally.  As I see it, you’ve now doubled-down on presumptions and missing the point, so kudos to your for consistency in our interactions.

 
Skipshot
 
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Skipshot
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13 September 2018 10:05
 
TheAnal_lyticPhilosopher - 13 September 2018 09:58 AM
Skipshot - 13 September 2018 07:16 AM
TheAnal_lyticPhilosopher - 13 September 2018 04:33 AM
Skipshot - 12 September 2018 10:23 PM

Millions of people are literally running for their lives and hope they have a house left when they return, and you want to make it about blaming a government weather reporting agency for an inconsistency which may slightly inconvenience your weekend?

Are you serious?

Good god.  Talk about presumptions, projecting, and missing the point.

It so happens the inconsistency was even worse at ground zero, where people are hoping to have a house to return to.  When that post was written, for the weekend The National Weather Service said “Hurricane Conditions Possible” with “new rainfall amounts in excess of 4 inches.” The National Hurricane Center said rainfall in excess of 20 or 25 inches.  These are not sensibly different forecasts, and so the original question stands: are these two branches of the same agency even talking to each other?

Also, as it happens, if I get 6 inches of rain, the new French drains we had installed in the yard may not work as we hope.  They’ve worked so far, but they’ve never been tested with this kind of deluge.  As a precaution, if it’s gong to be something like 6, I need to stay home to keep the water out of my basement (we had a trip planned this weekend).  Thousands of dollars are at stake.  So f*ck you.  It’s not simply a matter of “slightly inconvenience” my weekend, though prudently, the inconsistency is neither here nor there because like everyone else, I’m preparing for the worst.

In any case, the problem seems “fixed” now.  Twelve hours before the event the forecasts have converged for those folks at ground zero.  I suspect there is some quirk in how these forecasts are templated that prevents information from one informing the other until temporally the best available information de facto converges. For events like this, they really should do better.  My area, for instance, still suffers from the same problem because the event is still several days out…

Oh, now you explain why you are concerned, and blame me for not reading your mind..  In bold above is the solution to your problem - prepare for the worst, hope for the best.  And stop blaming the weatherman for not knowing exactly how much rain will fall on your house from an oncoming hurricane.

My original post still stands.

No, I pointed out you were making assumptions and missing the point because of them. 

The “WTF” in the original post was not intended to express outrage over uncertainty in my preparations, but simply faux-outrage over the absurdity of two government departments in the same weather reporting agency not coordinating their efforts.  I brought my situation up simply to show that these kinds of absurdities don’t occur in a consequence-free vacuum, even as I said in bringing them up that the inconsistency itself didn’t effect me personally.  As I see it, you’ve now doubled-down on presumptions and missing the point, so kudos to your for consistency in our interactions.

Give me some latitude for not understanding your brand of humor during a crisis.  I did ask if you were serious and you upbraided me instead of coming clean, so my defensiveness is justified.

 
Jan_CAN
 
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Jan_CAN
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13 September 2018 10:08
 

TAP, I second what GAD said, that I hope everything works out okay for you with the storm and no damage done.

(Hopefully the preparations being made for the worse in many areas expected to be hard hit will mean no loss of life.)

 
 
unsmoked
 
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unsmoked
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13 September 2018 10:43
 
LadyJane - 13 September 2018 07:34 AM
TheAnal_lyticPhilosopher - 13 September 2018 04:33 AM

I need to rent a pump to get the water out of my basement. Thousands of dollars of stacked books are at stake. So f*ck you.

If only there was a way to raise books high above the ground and shelve them there ‘er something.

Patent Pending.

I’m building one of these - https://www.thelocal.de/20170607/parthenon-made-of-books-built-at-site-of-nazi-book-burning

 
 
TheAnal_lyticPhilosopher
 
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TheAnal_lyticPhilosopher
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13 September 2018 10:59
 

Fair enough, Skipshot.  I’ll keep my own assumptions more in mind.  “Are you serious?” could be taken more than one way in any context.

Thanks, GAD.  Given our history, I take it especially kindly.

Jan_CAN, always a pleasure to hear from you.  I’m pretty sure the situation is well in hand, and depending on the updated forecast Friday evening, I still may be able to make my trip (my wife is still going), if the real rain doesn’t start until Sunday night.  It’s a 501st fundraiser, so I’d really like to go with her.

 
Nhoj Morley
 
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Nhoj Morley
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13 September 2018 11:46
 

I sympathize with the frustration with the weather service. I am painting the top coat of my porch railing this morning. I checked the weather site and radar. It is grey and cloudy which is good for painting something dark against the sky. No rain in the forecast and the upper midwest is clear of green blobs on the radar. Good to go. Except that it is raining.

Tis alright probably, I got it drying soon enough, but still…

Certainly some southern folks are in a long terrible stretch of coping with the aftermath. That doesn’t make our little problems any littler. The real problem is one of tone and delivery.

There do seem to be some presumption and projection issues when we can’t discern a poke in the ribs from a punch in the face or get a clear sense of intentions. Three thousand dollars in books is a little vague. I can picture a half million soggy second-hand romance novels floating in a sewage bouillion-base but that is probably not what’s at stake.

Good luck with the storm, Mr. Anus.

Afterward, I invite you to join me in podcast. A conversation in voice goes a long way to illuminate the posting.

 
 
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