Exit strategy?

 
mapadofu
 
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mapadofu
Total Posts:  733
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22 December 2018 11:19
 

What are the chances Trump will claim victory and not run in 2020? (or even more far fetchedly resign early?)

I can’t help but interpret the showdown over the wall funding and the pull out of Syria as moves that he can misrepresent as “wins” in order to give himself an out.  “I’ve done everything I promised and now I can go back to my very very successful businesses”

Then again maybe it is wishful thinking that the “monster will pass by of his own volition”.

[ Edited: 22 December 2018 11:41 by mapadofu]
 
Jan_CAN
 
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Jan_CAN
Total Posts:  3468
Joined  21-10-2016
 
 
 
22 December 2018 12:01
 
mapadofu - 22 December 2018 11:19 AM

What are the chances Trump will claim victory and not run in 2020? (or even more far fetchedly resign early?)

I can’t help but interpret the showdown over the wall funding and the pull out of Syria as moves that he can misrepresent as “wins” in order to give himself an out.  “I’ve done everything I promised and now I can go back to my very very successful businesses”

Then again maybe it is wishful thinking that the “monster will pass by of his own volition”.

I hope you’re right, but I interpreted these moves to be an attempt to better his position with his base for re-election.

My wishful-thinking scenario goes like this:  Mueller finds irrefutable evidence that Trump colluded with the Russians.  Due to difficulties in pursuing criminal charges against a sitting president, and the upheaval that would be caused by an impeachment, Trump is offered a deal.  If he resigns, and in doing so does not incite his base to resist, he will not be indicted and sent to prison after his term is up.  Trump resigns.

 

 
 
hannahtoo
 
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hannahtoo
Total Posts:  7176
Joined  15-05-2009
 
 
 
22 December 2018 19:03
 
Jan_CAN - 22 December 2018 12:01 PM
mapadofu - 22 December 2018 11:19 AM

What are the chances Trump will claim victory and not run in 2020? (or even more far fetchedly resign early?)

I can’t help but interpret the showdown over the wall funding and the pull out of Syria as moves that he can misrepresent as “wins” in order to give himself an out.  “I’ve done everything I promised and now I can go back to my very very successful businesses”

Then again maybe it is wishful thinking that the “monster will pass by of his own volition”.

I hope you’re right, but I interpreted these moves to be an attempt to better his position with his base for re-election.

My wishful-thinking scenario goes like this:  Mueller finds irrefutable evidence that Trump colluded with the Russians.  Due to difficulties in pursuing criminal charges against a sitting president, and the upheaval that would be caused by an impeachment, Trump is offered a deal.  If he resigns, and in doing so does not incite his base to resist, he will not be indicted and sent to prison after his term is up.  Trump resigns.

Who the heck would trust Trump to hold to any sort of deal about keeping quiet?

My prediction is that Trump hangs on until the end of his term.  Mueller’s investigation drags on and on, finally coming out with a report well into 2019.  Trump’s Admin and his supporters in the media and Congress dispute the findings and continue to claim prejudice in the investigation.  The House votes for impeachment, but the Senate will not convict (2/3 majority required).  Trump will not step down.  Legal wrangling ensues among the branches of government (ie Constitutional crisis).  2020 arrives.  Campaigns ramp up.  Trump splits the Republican Party, possibly creating his own America First Party.  The Democrat wins handily.

[ Edited: 22 December 2018 19:06 by hannahtoo]
 
Brick Bungalow
 
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Brick Bungalow
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24 December 2018 22:12
 

I don’t think its worth burning much gas trying to predict what he’ll do as if he were a rational actor or had a degree of moral intelligence. He doesn’t. He will handle failure and pending indictments as he handles everything else. With bluster, blame, diversion and self pity.

I suspect that he has handlers who are actually making decisions on his behalf and will orchestrate his exit. Saving face is probably good. Not because he deserves it but because the nation needs some segue into something constructive and cooperative. As emotionally satisfying as it is to tell a Trump supporter I told you so I really think we need to move past that.

 
Garret
 
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Garret
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25 January 2019 16:43
 

The statute of limitations for federal election law is 5 years.  If he wins re-election and the justice department maintains its policy of not indicting a sitting president, that would effectively make him immune to anything campaign related from 2016.

 
EN
 
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EN
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25 January 2019 17:16
 

Indictment is not going to happen.  The best course is defeat in 2020.  I wouldn’t try impeachment unless absolutely sir he would be convicted by Senate, which ain’t gonna happen.