What will happen on shutdown?

 
EN
 
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EN
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29 December 2018 18:15
 

Give your predictions here.

I think it will end on Friday, January 4, when the Dems agree for 3.5 billion for border security/wall and Trump agrees.

 
burt
 
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burt
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29 December 2018 20:53
 
EN - 29 December 2018 06:15 PM

Give your predictions here.

I think it will end on Friday, January 4, when the Dems agree for 3.5 billion for border security/wall and Trump agrees.

I sure hope not, I see this as the crunch test between Democrats and Trump. If they waver at all then Trump’s chances of reelection go way up.

 
Abel Dean
 
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Abel Dean
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29 December 2018 22:24
 

It is unlikely that Democrats will herald their seizure of the House by yielding to Trump’s wall. Maybe they would compromise with a tough fence instead. The wall is as much of a symbol for Democrats, representing what they oppose with all their hearts, as it is for Trump.

 
Skipshot
 
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Skipshot
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30 December 2018 01:05
 

For Republicans, shutting down the government as a negotiating tactic is win/win for their side since their party platform is that government is bad and should be minimized.  Since Democrats feel government services are, for the most part, good, then they will feel the pain of a shut down more than Republicans, and are more likely to accede to Republican demands.

For Trump, the game is to shut down the services which will benefit Republican supporters in business, such as regulatory agencies, while keeping open hot button services dear to Republicans, such as security.  Also targeting agencies which provide for a social safety net, such as welfare and food stamps, which Republicans generally dislike, will put more pain on Democrats.  Even if a Trump supporter is on welfare or food stamps, they will sacrifice themselves for the good of their political beliefs to satisfy their psychological need for consistency and to follow the leader.

The risk is that Trump will look like a kidnapper or terrorist demanding a ransom, and using real people’s lives as hostages.  Trump won’t gain any support from his detractors, but will certainly gain respect from his supporters as they will see him as being tough on the liberals.

 
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30 December 2018 11:36
 

It may be an opportunity for Republican Congressman Will Hurd’s “smart wall”, a less expensive border security employing surveillance technology.  I’m OK with that, but no wall in Texas remains my mantra.

 
Cheshire Cat
 
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30 December 2018 12:30
 

Trump was willing to let the wall go until the pundits at Fox News and Ann Coulter made a big noise about it. Trump cannot afford to lose his cult followers and if they think he is becoming weak they could turn on him. He had no choice but to double down and go all out with his idiotic wall. He will desperately need the support of his base if the Mueller probe proves he and his campaign colluded with Russia, and/or that he laundered money for Russian oligarchs.

It’s clear to perhaps 60% to 70% of the country that Trump is pandering to his base. The democrats know this. I only hope that the democratic party has grown a pair and will just wait this out. Blame will be placed on Trump and his enablers in the Republican party. The pressure will steadily increase on the Republicans as their corporate and wealthy elite donors become sickened by this standoff. They could even turn on the Republicans if they don’t stop this. A partially impaired United States government is bad for business. It raises doubts about the United States as a safe, functioning place to do business. Once the fat cats and corporate money men turn on Trump and the Republicans, they will have to compromise. I don’t think it will take that long for this to happen.

 
 
Brick Bungalow
 
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Brick Bungalow
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30 December 2018 20:41
 

If January sees a bad stock market combined with unpaid federal workers and more unhappy top military officials I think the ground will be pretty fertile for impeachment proceedings… which house democrats have already pledged to proceed with. Recent public statements on both the house and senate floor do not indicate, to me that democrats are especially keen to compromise. I too hope that they don’t. I don’t like the shutdown but I think cooperation with an actor like Trump is simply a non starter. He isn’t capable of having the nations interests at heart.

 
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03 January 2019 15:57
 

Pelosi is holding firm right now.  I would gladly be wrong if she held strong.

 
Antisocialdarwinist
 
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Antisocialdarwinist
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03 January 2019 20:48
 
EN - 29 December 2018 06:15 PM

Give your predictions here.

Easy: As long as the contest drags on, both sides will blame the other, like a couple of seven-year-olds. Then, when it finally ends, both sides will declare victory. Does that make you proud to belong to one of our two political parties?

 
 
Brick Bungalow
 
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03 January 2019 22:34
 

I was happy to read about the house putting forward a bill to end the shutdown without Trumps signature. I’m not versed in civics enough to know how likely or even possible this is but I do support it.

 
Quadrewple
 
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14 January 2019 11:05
 
Skipshot - 30 December 2018 01:05 AM

For Republicans, shutting down the government as a negotiating tactic is win/win for their side since their party platform is that government is bad and should be minimized.  Since Democrats feel government services are, for the most part, good, then they will feel the pain of a shut down more than Republicans, and are more likely to accede to Republican demands.

Well put, and the longer this shutdown goes on, the more it hurts the Democrat brand.

Skipshot - 30 December 2018 01:05 AM

For Trump, the game is to shut down the services which will benefit Republican supporters in business, such as regulatory agencies, while keeping open hot button services dear to Republicans, such as security.  Also targeting agencies which provide for a social safety net, such as welfare and food stamps, which Republicans generally dislike, will put more pain on Democrats.  Even if a Trump supporter is on welfare or food stamps, they will sacrifice themselves for the good of their political beliefs to satisfy their psychological need for consistency and to follow the leader.

Is there politics related to government shutdowns and where the money still flows to?  Sure, but I don’t have any particular insight into that.

I’m not sure that any Trump supporter is willing to give up welfare and food stamps in order to get a border wall, partial or otherwise.  But at the same time, I don’t think any Democrat supporter is willing to give up welfare and food stamps in order to NOT get a wall.

So in this theoretical situation of selfless poor people, Trump still has an advantage:  the Democrats are not offering anything….he is offering something (regardless of what value you place on it). 

The only thing the Democrats have to offer is currently shut down.  This is one of the most savvy political moves ever made by Trump, for precisely this reason.

I just want to point out that this situation wherein peoples’ livelihoods are negotiation chips for politicians is exactly the result of a society dependent on government spending.

This is the exact model people on the left have been pushing for, whether they did it intentionally or not…..this is the culmination of their political philosophy.  It’s as if they believed they could control the machine at every step of the way, and we would never reach a moment of reckoning.

Skipshot - 30 December 2018 01:05 AM

The risk is that Trump will look like a kidnapper or terrorist demanding a ransom, and using real people’s lives as hostages.  Trump won’t gain any support from his detractors, but will certainly gain respect from his supporters as they will see him as being tough on the liberals.

Yes but, Democrats look every bit as selfish as Republicans do here.  Every single argument you can make about Trump also applies to them.

But again, to blame individual actors here is missing the point, which is that no one side gets total control (thankfully) over the power of the state.  If you push programs which cause dependence on government spending, it’s up to you to make sure that those dependents are provided for IN PERPETUITY.

You don’t get to wash your hands of the government dependence experiment because of political resistance…...you knew going in there would be resistance…...unless you didn’t?  Then we’re talking about a level of foolishness and immaturity that is truly childlike.

I think deep down, Democrats realize this but most of them will never admit it.  This is why there’s so much hysteria around this situation - because it exposes the instability in the system they worked so hard to create.  The only way their experiment could continue would be if Republicans lay down and conceded defeat (which is what was happening until Trump came along).

Support for a small government is predicated on the fact that we will simply never get along or agree on what the government should or shouldn’t do.  This is the ancient wisdom that the modern left never addresses or denies.

Every conversation about the government shutdown which doesn’t acknowledge that this is the inevitable result of an ever-growing state is a waste of time.

The inevitable outcome of this struggle for power is either totalitarianism, decentralization, or both.