UPHEAVAL by Jared Diamond “I would estimate the chances are about 49 percent that the world as we know it will collapse by about 2050.”  -  JD

 
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23 May 2019 10:36
 

Jared Diamond on His New Book, Upheaval - New York Magazine (author of Guns, Germs, and Steel’ - 1997.  ‘Collapse’ - 2005)

nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/05/jared-diamond-on-his-new-book-upheaval.html

May 10, 2019 - Jared Diamond: There’s a 49 Percent Chance the World As We Know It Will End by 2050. Jared Diamond’s new book, Upheaval, addresses itself to a world very obviously in crisis, and tries to lift some lessons for what do about it from the distant past.

Q:  How likely do you think that is? That the whole network of civilization would collapse?

JD:  “I would estimate the chances are about 49 percent that the world as we know it will collapse by about 2050. I’ll be dead by then but my kids will be, what? Sixty-three years old in 2050. So this is a subject of much practical interest to me. At the rate we’re going now, resources that are essential for complex societies are being managed unsustainably. Fisheries around the world, most fisheries are being managed unsustainably, and they’re getting depleted. Farms around the world, most farms are being managed unsustainably. Soil, topsoil around the world. Fresh water around the world is being managed unsustainably. With all these things, at the rate we’re going now, we can carry on with our present unsustainable use for a few decades, and by around 2050 we won’t be able to continue it any longer. Which means that by 2050 either we’ve figured out a sustainable course, or it’ll be too late.”

http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/05/jared-diamond-on-his-new-book-upheaval.html  (published this month)

 
 
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25 May 2019 07:55
 

I first heard these claims (which I agree with), from John Robbins, in 1987’s “Diet for a New America”. I’m sure Robbins wasn’t the first.

It strikes me that we gotta get folks educated and up in arms. One place to start would be to stop subsidizing unsustainable farming practices. If we did this, then the price of beef would shoot up to $20 or $30 per pound, which is where it should be.

 
 
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25 May 2019 11:21
 
icehorse - 25 May 2019 07:55 AM

I first heard these claims (which I agree with), from John Robbins, in 1987’s “Diet for a New America”. I’m sure Robbins wasn’t the first.

It strikes me that we gotta get folks educated and up in arms. One place to start would be to stop subsidizing unsustainable farming practices. If we did this, then the price of beef would shoot up to $20 or $30 per pound, which is where it should be.

One way to educate folks would be to have 2 prices on things - what you’re paying at the gas pump for example, and what it would cost if you had to pay for the damages caused by burning the gas.  2 electric bills - one that you pay, and the other showing what you’d pay if you had to pay for the environmental damage caused by generating that electricity. 

http://www8.nationalacademies.org/onpinews/newsitem.aspx?RecordID=12794


REPORT EXAMINES HIDDEN HEALTH AND ENVIRONMENTAL COSTS OF ENERGY PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION IN U.S.

WASHINGTON—A new report from the National Research Council examines and, when possible, estimates “hidden” costs of energy production and use—such as the damage air pollution imposes on human health—that are not reflected in market prices of coal, oil, other energy sources, or the electricity and gasoline produced from them.  The report estimates dollar values for several major components of these costs.  The damages the committee was able to quantify were an estimated $120 billion in the U.S. in 2005, a number that reflects primarily health damages from air pollution associated with electricity generation and motor vehicle transportation.  The figure does not include damages from climate change, harm to ecosystems, effects of some air pollutants such as mercury, and risks to national security, which the report examines but does not monetize.

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13 August 2019 12:04
 

UPHEAVAL - Chapter 11 - WHAT LIES AHEAD FOR THE WORLD

One of the last topics in this chapter deals with inequality.  A billion of us are using 32 times the resources of the other 6.5 billion.  Now millions of people are on the move, from poverty toward prosperity.  An invasion?