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US-Mexico Immigration

 
no_profundia
 
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no_profundia
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14 September 2019 18:24
 

I watched a great lecture on US-Mexico immigration and border policy the other day at work that I wanted to share:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m4YMm6ur-Xw

Douglas Massey wrote an excellent book on the subject: Beyond Smoke and Mirrors: Mexican Immigration in an Era of Economic Integration. The book came out in the early 2000s so it is slightly dated but Massey started the largest existing database on Mexican immigration back in the late 80s and has been monitoring it ever since. He is well worth listening to.

Bullet points from the lecture:

-The net migration of illegal immigrants has been zero or negative since around 2008 (there is no “invasion” happening).
-Of the 11+ million illegal immigrants in the US around 2/3 of them have been here for 5+ years.
-Our spending on increased border security has had no effect on the probability that a person will make a first attempt to come here illegally but it has increased how long the average illegal immigrant stays (because coyotes are now necessary, more costly, and immigrants know it will be more difficult and costly to get back in if they leave).
-Increased border security has turned what was basically seasonal migration in a few states into a situation where large numbers of illegal immigrants have come and settled for years in all 50 states. So even if we measure increased border security by the yardstick of those who support it (it’s ability to reduce illegal immigration) it has been a colossal failure.

 
 
GAD
 
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GAD
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14 September 2019 18:46
 

Whats missing there is the extreme lefts need to save illegals to be heroes. Now we have sanctuary cites, drivers licenses, healthcare, free education, welfare, housing etc etc all targeted at illegals, so why not come and why ever leave.

 
 
no_profundia
 
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no_profundia
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14 September 2019 18:59
 
GAD - 14 September 2019 06:46 PM

Whats missing there is the extreme lefts need to save illegals to be heroes. Now we have sanctuary cites, drivers licenses, healthcare, free education, welfare, housing etc etc all targeted at illegals, so why not come and why ever leave.

It’s missing for good reason. Massey is interested in actually understanding Mexican immigration and offering a serious analysis. Not in creating caricatures of the far left or Mexican immigrants.

 
 
GAD
 
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GAD
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14 September 2019 20:37
 
no_profundia - 14 September 2019 06:59 PM
GAD - 14 September 2019 06:46 PM

Whats missing there is the extreme lefts need to save illegals to be heroes. Now we have sanctuary cites, drivers licenses, healthcare, free education, welfare, housing etc etc all targeted at illegals, so why not come and why ever leave.

It’s missing for good reason. Massey is interested in actually understanding Mexican immigration and offering a serious analysis. Not in creating caricatures of the far left or Mexican immigrants.

Ah, so Mexican immigrants don’t care about any of that, they like being outside the law, living underground, getting whatever they can get here and then getting while the getting good and taking it back with them.

 
 
no_profundia
 
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no_profundia
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14 September 2019 21:09
 

Ah, so Mexican immigrants don’t care about any of that, they like being outside the law, living underground, getting whatever they can get here and then getting while the getting good and taking it back with them.

If you are actually interested in this question (which I doubt) I suggest reading the book I recommended. But the short answer is, the vast majority of Mexican immigrants do not dream of moving to the US to live on welfare (they are also not eligible for most welfare programs though their children are if they are born in the US).

Some of the primary motives for individuals immigrating to the US from Mexico include: diversifying risk by sending individuals from a household to a labor market that is uncorrelated to the home labor market and building up savings to smooth household consumption.

Both of these are often considered temporary and the intention is for the person to stay for a while and return home and until we ramped up border security the average stay of the average illegal immigrant was much shorter. And as I mentioned in my first bullet point, net migration has been negative since 2008 which means more people are leaving then coming.

So yeah, the idea you have that food stamps for your child and free emergency room care if you have a medical emergency are Mexicans’ idea of living in luxury, and an irresistible magnet for immigrants that keeps them here longer than they would otherwise stay, is not a serious analysis.

 
 
GAD
 
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15 September 2019 00:53
 
no_profundia - 14 September 2019 09:09 PM

Ah, so Mexican immigrants don’t care about any of that, they like being outside the law, living underground, getting whatever they can get here and then getting while the getting good and taking it back with them.

If you are actually interested in this question (which I doubt) I suggest reading the book I recommended. But the short answer is, the vast majority of Mexican immigrants do not dream of moving to the US to live on welfare (they are also not eligible for most welfare programs though their children are if they are born in the US).

Some of the primary motives for individuals immigrating to the US from Mexico include: diversifying risk by sending individuals from a household to a labor market that is uncorrelated to the home labor market and building up savings to smooth household consumption.

Both of these are often considered temporary and the intention is for the person to stay for a while and return home and until we ramped up border security the average stay of the average illegal immigrant was much shorter. And as I mentioned in my first bullet point, net migration has been negative since 2008 which means more people are leaving then coming.

So yeah, the idea you have that food stamps for your child and free emergency room care if you have a medical emergency are Mexicans’ idea of living in luxury, and an irresistible magnet for immigrants that keeps them here longer than they would otherwise stay, is not a serious analysis.

Good to know! I wasn’t aware that illegals immigrants all have degrees in economics and have devised multi-nation strategies to balance the household budget.

 
 
no_profundia
 
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no_profundia
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15 September 2019 06:59
 

Good to know! I wasn’t aware that illegals immigrants all have degrees in economics and have devised multi-nation strategies to balance the household budget.

You don’t need a degree in economics to know that having a family member with a job in the US reduces household risk in the event of rising unemployment in your home town or that having money in a savings account is a good thing.

Did you have any serious comments to make?

 
 
Celal
 
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Celal
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15 September 2019 08:42
 

When you try to argue that illegals jumping over the fence to come into your home uninvited is good for you defies common sense.  That is probably why you could not follow GAD’s common sense posts.  Try this ...

A 2017 study by the Federation for American Immigration Reform found that illegal aliens cost the American taxpayer $116 billion a year.

https://www.fairus.org/issue/workforce-economy/cost-immigration

The real costs are probably even higher than these estimates for it assumes 12.5 Million illegals, about the same number we have been told for the past 15-20 years.

A few years ago, the Heritage Foundation’s Robert Rector looked at the winners and losers under our government redistribution system and found that in 2010, households headed by illegal immigrants received $14,387 more in government services than they paid in taxes.

https://www.heritage.org/immigration/report/the-fiscal-cost-unlawful-immigrants-and-amnesty-the-us-taxpayer

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GAD
 
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15 September 2019 09:47
 
no_profundia - 15 September 2019 06:59 AM

Good to know! I wasn’t aware that illegals immigrants all have degrees in economics and have devised multi-nation strategies to balance the household budget.

You don’t need a degree in economics to know that having a family member with a job in the US reduces household risk in the event of rising unemployment in your home town or that having money in a savings account is a good thing.

Did you have any serious comments to make?

Seriously I’ve learned two things here that you say are fully supported by the data.

1: The extreme lefts need to be heroes and save illegals with sanctuary cites, drivers licenses, healthcare, free education, welfare, housing etc, is a complete waste and nothing more then petty self-righteousness as the illegals don’t want them or want nothing to do with them.

2: Illegals come here not for a new life, but to get and take whatever they can to take back to their own household without any consideration for our households.

 

 
 
no_profundia
 
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no_profundia
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15 September 2019 10:00
 

When you try to argue that illegals jumping over the fence to come into your home uninvited is good for you defies common sense.

How the hell could you have read any of my posts and gotten this out of it? I never said anything about the costs or benefits of immigration for the native born US population. That is not the question we were discussing.

The issue of what the true costs and benefits of immigration are for the US population are far more complicated than the right-wing think tanks you are citing suggest but even if you agree that immigrants cost more than they benefit us shouldn’t you support a policy that actually reduces immigration?

The main point I emphasized in my first post was: increased border security does not decrease illegal immigration and it leads to illegal immigrants staying here longer. So if you think illegal immigrants are costing us lots of money supporting increased border security doesn’t make a lot of sense.

The real costs are probably even higher than these estimates for it assumes 12.5 Million illegals, about the same number we have been told for the past 15-20 years.

Actually, the real costs are probably lower because as I also said in my first post the number of illegal immigrants in the US today is lower not higher than it was 10 years ago. The net migration is negative.

The main reason for that is actually demographic. Mexican families aren’t having as many children.

 
 
no_profundia
 
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no_profundia
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15 September 2019 10:03
 

Seriously I’ve learned two things here that you say are fully supported by the data.

1: The extreme lefts need to be heroes and save illegals with sanctuary cites, drivers licenses, healthcare, free education, welfare, housing etc, is a complete waste and nothing more then petty self-righteousness as the illegals don’t want them or want nothing to do with them.

2: Illegals come here not for a new life, but to get and take whatever they can to take back to their own household without any consideration for our households.

Your reading comprehension is not much better than Celal’s. If you learned this here it is not because of any information I presented. This is you taking the information I did present and running it through whatever distorting mirror you carry around in your head. I can’t prevent people from drawing ridiculous conclusions but I don’t have to waste any more time trying to correct them.

 
 
GAD
 
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15 September 2019 10:13
 
no_profundia - 15 September 2019 10:03 AM

Seriously I’ve learned two things here that you say are fully supported by the data.

1: The extreme lefts need to be heroes and save illegals with sanctuary cites, drivers licenses, healthcare, free education, welfare, housing etc, is a complete waste and nothing more then petty self-righteousness as the illegals don’t want them or want nothing to do with them.

2: Illegals come here not for a new life, but to get and take whatever they can to take back to their own household without any consideration for our households.

Your reading comprehension is not much better than Celal’s. If you learned this here it is not because of any information I presented. This is you taking the information I did present and running it through whatever distorting mirror you carry around in your head. I can’t prevent people from drawing ridiculous conclusions but I don’t have to waste any more time trying to correct them.

Um, you should go back and reread what you wrote, you may not like the way I phrased it but what you said supports my ridiculous conclusions.

 
 
no_profundia
 
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no_profundia
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15 September 2019 10:22
 

Okay, one more try even though I know it’s hopeless.

The extreme lefts need to be heroes and save illegals with sanctuary cites, drivers licenses, healthcare, free education, welfare, housing etc, is a complete waste and nothing more then petty self-righteousness as the illegals don’t want them or want nothing to do with them.

Please show me what I wrote that supports the claim “The extreme lefts need to be heroes and save illegals.” I never said anything about the left or even what policies I support.

Please show me where I said that “illegals don’t want them or want nothing to do with them.” The question was not whether illegals want them. The question was whether these programs are a major causal factor in explaining the number of immigrants who decide to come here and how long they decide to stay. If you think anything I said supports the claim that immigrants want “nothing to do” with social services then your reading comprehension is worse than I thought.

Illegals come here not for a new life, but to get and take whatever they can to take back to their own household without any consideration for our households.

This is you imagining that illegals are “taking” things from us. They come here to work. Businesses benefit from hiring them. They buy things and produce economic activity. They pay taxes. They are not simply robbing us and taking what they get and returning. Again, the question of whether they cost the taxpayer more than they pay in taxes is disputed and a complex question - this is what Celal’s papers are about. The overall effect they have on the economy is also complex and disputed.

Your version is a simplistic distortion and is not based on anything I said.

 
 
GAD
 
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15 September 2019 10:42
 
no_profundia - 15 September 2019 10:22 AM

Okay, one more try even though I know it’s hopeless.

The extreme lefts need to be heroes and save illegals with sanctuary cites, drivers licenses, healthcare, free education, welfare, housing etc, is a complete waste and nothing more then petty self-righteousness as the illegals don’t want them or want nothing to do with them.

Please show me what I wrote that supports the claim “The extreme lefts need to be heroes and save illegals.” I never said anything about the left or even what policies I support.

Please show me where I said that “illegals don’t want them or want nothing to do with them.” The question was not whether illegals want them. The question was whether these programs are a major causal factor in explaining the number of immigrants who decide to come here and how long they decide to stay. If you think anything I said supports the claim that immigrants want “nothing to do” with social services then your reading comprehension is worse than I thought.

The extreme left is my term, come on you can follow along better then that. In the below you clearly state that they don’t want these things and the data doesn’t support it. So then why do we do them? Why is doing more of them on the news every day? Why is it a major platform issue for the Dem runners if the people they are trying so hard to save care nothing about it?

“the short answer is, the vast majority of Mexican immigrants do not dream of moving to the US to live on welfare”

“So yeah, the idea you have that food stamps for your child and free emergency room care if you have a medical emergency are Mexicans’ idea of living in luxury, and an irresistible magnet for immigrants that keeps them here longer than they would otherwise stay, is not a serious analysis.”

Illegals come here not for a new life, but to get and take whatever they can to take back to their own household without any consideration for our households.

This is you imagining that illegals are “taking” things from us. They come here to work. Businesses benefit from hiring them. They buy things and produce economic activity. They pay taxes. They are not simply robbing us and taking what they get and returning. Again, the question of whether they cost the taxpayer more than they pay in taxes is disputed and a complex question - this is what Celal’s papers are about. The overall effect they have on the economy is also complex and disputed.

Your version is a simplistic distortion and is not based on anything I said.

In your posts and above and below you clearly say that don’t care about being here or about staying here, they simply come here to get as much as they can and take it back home with them. That Businesses can illegally save money by hiring illegals and that illegals pay tax on what they buy while here are completely incidental and not a argument for why it should be OK. 

“the primary motives for individuals immigrating to the US from Mexico include: diversifying risk by sending individuals from a household to a labor market that is uncorrelated to the home labor market and building up savings to smooth household consumption.”

 
 
no_profundia
 
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no_profundia
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15 September 2019 10:55
 

GAD, I just explained in my previous posts why the statements you are quoting don’t mean what you are interpreting them to mean. To explain it again would simply be repeating my previous post in different words in the hopes that it is merely the particular combination of words I chose that is misleading you. I doubt that is the case so I’m not going to bother rephrasing. If you want to know why my statements don’t mean what you think they mean re-read my last post.

To get this discussion back on track for anyone else who would like to comment. Here are some of the main things I took away from the video I posted:

1. Net migration of Mexican immigrants has been zero or negative since 2008.
2. Most of the illegal immigrants in the country now have been here for 5+ years.
3. Spending on increased border security has not reduced illegal immigration but has increased the length of time illegal immigrants tend to stay.
4. The Bracero program ended in 1964 and between then and the ramp up in border security most illegal immigrants were seasonal migrants who would come work for a season and return. Increasing border security altered that dynamic and led to a situation where more illegal immigrants were settling here for years or permanently.

The overall point I was trying to emphasize with my bullet points was: even if you think illegal immigrants are bad, and we should want to reduce illegal immigration, ramping up border security is not likely to be a real effective measure but is basically just symbolic.

 
 
GAD
 
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15 September 2019 11:13
 
no_profundia - 15 September 2019 10:55 AM

GAD, I just explained in my previous posts why the statements you are quoting don’t mean what you are interpreting them to mean. To explain it again would simply be repeating my previous post in different words in the hopes that it is merely the particular combination of words I chose that is misleading you. I doubt that is the case so I’m not going to bother rephrasing. If you want to know why my statements don’t mean what you think they mean re-read my last post.

To get this discussion back on track for anyone else who would like to comment. Here are some of the main things I took away from the video I posted:

1. Net migration of Mexican immigrants has been zero or negative since 2008.
2. Most of the illegal immigrants in the country now have been here for 5+ years.
3. Spending on increased border security has not reduced illegal immigration but has increased the length of time illegal immigrants tend to stay.
4. The Bracero program ended in 1964 and between then and the ramp up in border security most illegal immigrants were seasonal migrants who would come work for a season and return. Increasing border security altered that dynamic and led to a situation where more illegal immigrants were settling here for years or permanently.

The overall point I was trying to emphasize with my bullet points was: even if you think illegal immigrants are bad, and we should want to reduce illegal immigration, ramping up border security is not likely to be a real effective measure but is basically just symbolic.

No worries, I know you don’t like the way I phrase it, but really I get it. As for illegal immigration control I will just repeat what I have said over the years, go after the businesses that employ them, not a slap on the wrist but like full on seize their assets kind of penalties. And no more US benefits for illegals, period. And if we have to get draconian, then all caught illegals have to work to pay off all the costs of detaining and processing them, basically indentured servitude. Being detained here, having to work it off and going home with nothing removes any reason for coming.

 
 
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