Given the volume of today’s air travel - will any new ‘bug’ be worldwide before doctors know what it is?

 
unsmoked
 
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unsmoked
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23 February 2021 11:53
 

https://www.businessinsider.com/video-shows-every-airline-flight-in-the-world-over-a-24-hour-period-2016-3  (scroll down to see animation)

A Deadly Coronavirus Was Inevitable. Why Was No One Ready?
Scientists warned of a pandemic for decades, yet when Covid-19 arrived, the world had few resources and little understanding

https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-deadly-coronavirus-was-inevitable-why-was-no-one-ready-for-covid-11597325213

Does the U.S. have breeding grounds for the next pandemic? 

People may worry less about the transmission of a virus from animals to humans if they don’t eat wildlife. However, the conditions on factory farms — where most of U.S. animal products originate — are similar to those of wildlife markets, and could be the source of the next pandemic. In fact, the H1N1 influenza outbreak of 2009 originated in an industrial pig farm in North Carolina, the Nipah virus was also transmitted from pigs to humans, and the H5N1 avian influenza was transmitted from poultry to humans.

Zoonotic diseases, diseases that can spread from animals to humans and vice versa, are a major public health concern, with the CDC estimating that over 60% of known infectious diseases are zoonotic.

https://www.mspca.org/animal_protection/factory-farming-pandemic/

 
 
Poldano
 
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24 February 2021 01:39
 

I think it’s likely that at least one new lethal infectious agent will match the description within the next 20 years, and I’m probably erring on the side of optimism. It’s plausible that infectious agents without noticeably harmful symptoms for most people already spread worldwide without being identified or recognized as a new agent. For example, if a new species of virus appeared that causes 24 hours of mild intestinal discomfort or less for 99% of its victims were to happen, and causes at worst 2 days of vomiting and diarrhea for the remaining 1%, it’s plausible that it would be detected as new and distinct only by accident.

 
 
weird buffalo
 
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weird buffalo
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24 February 2021 07:09
 

One of the possible origins of the 1918 outbreak was Kansas.

 
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24 February 2021 09:32
 
weird buffalo - 24 February 2021 07:09 AM

One of the possible origins of the 1918 outbreak was Kansas.

https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/first-cases-reported-in-deadly-influenza-epidemic

The initial outbreak of the disease, reported at Fort Riley in March, was followed by similar outbreaks in army camps and prisons in various regions of the country. The disease soon traveled to Europe with the American soldiers heading to aid the Allies on the battlefields of France. (In March 1918 alone, 84,000 American soldiers headed across the Atlantic; another 118,000 followed them the next month.) Once it arrived on a second continent, the flu showed no signs of abating: 31,000 cases were reported in June in Great Britain. The disease was eventually dubbed the Spanish flu because people erroneously believed Spain was the epicenter of the pandemic.

Cause and Effect

Given the horror and cruelty of factory farming - this practice is bound to have consequences that bite humanity in the ass.  (see last link in the OP)

 
 
Brick Bungalow
 
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Brick Bungalow
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04 March 2021 11:21
 

Given the apparent scope of microbial mutation I think its definitely possible. I’m not qualified to say how likely but I’m aware of studies that suggest these things occur in somewhat predictable cycles. I remember listening to lectures in school back in the nineties that more or less predicted the current epidemic. Travel combined with a non trivial percent of world population that will reliably not cooperate with medical guidance makes it seem pretty likely to me.

I wish we could evaluate these issues in terms of evidence and reliable predictive method rather than having the debate (as it seems to me) on the basis of competing ideologies and personalities.

I believe novel viruses will play a central role in the next few decades of the human experiment. I’m not optimistic. At least about the U.S. situation. We are poised to fail the test.