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The Real X Files

 
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25 May 2021 06:28
 
MrRon - 23 May 2021 01:55 PM
EN - 23 May 2021 09:45 AM

Interstellar travel is daunting for us, but who knows for a more advanced civilization.  All of it is speculation, but if another nation here has this technology, then i agree with a previous poster who wrote that we are in trouble.

By all accounts, the speed of light is the cosmic speed limit. For everyone everywhere. The physics of mass and energy are very well known, and it’s a virtual certainty that no amount of advanced technology can overcome this hurdle. So on that alone the prospects of interstellar travel are dim. Again, the universe is VERY VERY big and distances are tremendous. I also think that Hollywood has tainted most people’s notion of space travel via Star Trek and the like. Zipping from planet to planet makes for good science fiction movies, but gives a false sense of the scale of the universe.

As far as other nations having the technology, one has to wonder what they’re waiting for to subjugate the rest of the world. It seems that they’re content in remaining anonymous and playing hide and seek with our aircraft.

Ron

 

It may be the limit as far as we know. Please understand - I’m not arguing that these are aliens.  I’m just saying that we don’t know everything that is possible yet.

 
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MrRon
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25 May 2021 06:39
 
Skipshot - 25 May 2021 01:14 AM
MrRon - 24 May 2021 03:25 PM

Still a giant leap to extraterrestrials though.

This is a good place to stop.  Just because we don’t know does not mean we can give credence to speculation.  I don’t want to believe; I want to know.

Right. I want to know too. But what we can do is assign probabilities to the various hypotheses. Aliens visiting us from another world gets a low probability. Advanced secret technology from another country (or even from deep within our own government) is more likely, but still doesn’t seem satisfying given the details of these sightings. Apparently something is going on, and it deserves our attention. Let’s do a proper, rigorous scientific investigation and find out once and for all.   

Ron

 
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25 May 2021 07:07
 
EN - 25 May 2021 06:28 AM
MrRon - 23 May 2021 01:55 PM
EN - 23 May 2021 09:45 AM

Interstellar travel is daunting for us, but who knows for a more advanced civilization.  All of it is speculation, but if another nation here has this technology, then i agree with a previous poster who wrote that we are in trouble.

By all accounts, the speed of light is the cosmic speed limit. For everyone everywhere. The physics of mass and energy are very well known, and it’s a virtual certainty that no amount of advanced technology can overcome this hurdle. So on that alone the prospects of interstellar travel are dim. Again, the universe is VERY VERY big and distances are tremendous. I also think that Hollywood has tainted most people’s notion of space travel via Star Trek and the like. Zipping from planet to planet makes for good science fiction movies, but gives a false sense of the scale of the universe.

As far as other nations having the technology, one has to wonder what they’re waiting for to subjugate the rest of the world. It seems that they’re content in remaining anonymous and playing hide and seek with our aircraft.

Ron

 

It may be the limit as far as we know. Please understand - I’m not arguing that these are aliens.  I’m just saying that we don’t know everything that is possible yet.

Yes, I understand that you’re not implying aliens. And I agree - we don’t know everything that is possible yet. But at some point we have to draw reasonable lines. Humans will never run a mile in 30 seconds. Cows will never jump over the moon. And although not totally impossible I suppose, achieving superluminal speed would be extraordinarily difficult. So difficult that we can (almost) put it in the category of the unachievable.

Ron

 
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weird buffalo
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25 May 2021 07:34
 

I would rule out both alien and foreign country tech, or at least both being exceedingly low.  The primary issue with it being sourced from an organized intelligence is that all of these encounters are wildly different.  Object shapes and behaviors are radically different.  For it to be a craft of some sort, not only would it require technology that defies what we know about physics on the macro level (which I’m sure a competent physicist would tell us is absurd), but there being a wide variety in design shapes is not what we observe in other technologies.  Look at other military craft, and while there are minor variations on a theme, they all adhere to the theme.  Designing a craft like this would much more likely come with fairly strict size and shape requirements.  Or, purely as a way of reducing work, once one workable size/shape was used, it would be replicated and refined, and not radically altered.  Even in traditional aircraft, radical alterations are much more minor and come with specific purpose due to differing technologies.  So, for all of these to be the source of intelligent beings would suggest that not only is there a couple of advanced technologies, by every new sighting is a new craft with radically new or different technologies from the last sighting, and/or is from a different group of designers.

I find it telling that the video footage doesn’t match any of the eye witness accounts.  Reports from radar and eye witnesses describe incredible feats of defying gravity and inertia, but the video footage is always something traveling in either a straight line or arc at a steady speed.  This is very incongruous and makes both pieces of evidence suspect IMO.  If the one corroborated the other, I would find both more compelling, but since they differ so much I find it very reasonable to completely discount the idea that they are actually evidence of identical phenomenon.  If we treat them as completely separate pieces of evidence instead of a consistent pattern, the story is suddenly on much shakier ground.

Human memory is extremely faulty.  Without corroborating evidence, I’m not willing to trust human memory to inform us that something previously unknown exists.  I’m not saying they made it up, hallucinated, or anything like that.  But rather, they saw something strange and as they have now recounted this memory over and over, the memory has slowly changed and altered.  Because of how memory works, this makes such a strange story unreliable.  In addition, memory is not something we can examine and investigate.  Even if we could look inside of their brain to check it unfiltered, due to the nature of how memory works the actual memory gets altered over time.

Lastly, there is a shared element in most of these stories.  They occur over the ocean and seem to be depicted during the day.  Decades ago we used to get more stories over the continental US, but those seem to have faded away.  Now, they’re all occurring over the ocean.  What the significance is, I do not know.  But they’re happening in localized areas, and being spotted by members of the same community, and often sharing somewhat similar stories.  I find the idea of a natural phenomenon that is being misinterpreted to due cultural priming to be a much more likely explanation, though of course I have no direct evidence to give for it.  Except of course we know that light and gases exist, and that cultural priming to interpret stimuli also happens.  Since these are known things to exist and occur, I find them much more likely explanations, though I have no idea what the actual inciting phenomenon are.

 
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25 May 2021 12:54
 

Sound travels at 671 mph.  Light travels at 670,616,629 mph.  Ladies and Gentlemen, start your engines.  Fasten your seatbelts.

Super-intelligent beings on other planets probably use their imagination to travel at warp speed to explore other planets.  They see that they’re already out there so there’s no need to bother going.

 
 
MrRon
 
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25 May 2021 15:41
 
weird buffalo - 25 May 2021 07:34 AM

I would rule out both alien and foreign country tech, or at least both being exceedingly low.  The primary issue with it being sourced from an organized intelligence is that all of these encounters are wildly different.  Object shapes and behaviors are radically different.  For it to be a craft of some sort, not only would it require technology that defies what we know about physics on the macro level (which I’m sure a competent physicist would tell us is absurd), but there being a wide variety in design shapes is not what we observe in other technologies.  Look at other military craft, and while there are minor variations on a theme, they all adhere to the theme.  Designing a craft like this would much more likely come with fairly strict size and shape requirements.  Or, purely as a way of reducing work, once one workable size/shape was used, it would be replicated and refined, and not radically altered.  Even in traditional aircraft, radical alterations are much more minor and come with specific purpose due to differing technologies.  So, for all of these to be the source of intelligent beings would suggest that not only is there a couple of advanced technologies, by every new sighting is a new craft with radically new or different technologies from the last sighting, and/or is from a different group of designers.

I find it telling that the video footage doesn’t match any of the eye witness accounts.  Reports from radar and eye witnesses describe incredible feats of defying gravity and inertia, but the video footage is always something traveling in either a straight line or arc at a steady speed.  This is very incongruous and makes both pieces of evidence suspect IMO.  If the one corroborated the other, I would find both more compelling, but since they differ so much I find it very reasonable to completely discount the idea that they are actually evidence of identical phenomenon.  If we treat them as completely separate pieces of evidence instead of a consistent pattern, the story is suddenly on much shakier ground.

Human memory is extremely faulty.  Without corroborating evidence, I’m not willing to trust human memory to inform us that something previously unknown exists.  I’m not saying they made it up, hallucinated, or anything like that.  But rather, they saw something strange and as they have now recounted this memory over and over, the memory has slowly changed and altered.  Because of how memory works, this makes such a strange story unreliable.  In addition, memory is not something we can examine and investigate.  Even if we could look inside of their brain to check it unfiltered, due to the nature of how memory works the actual memory gets altered over time.

Lastly, there is a shared element in most of these stories.  They occur over the ocean and seem to be depicted during the day.  Decades ago we used to get more stories over the continental US, but those seem to have faded away.  Now, they’re all occurring over the ocean.  What the significance is, I do not know.  But they’re happening in localized areas, and being spotted by members of the same community, and often sharing somewhat similar stories.  I find the idea of a natural phenomenon that is being misinterpreted to due cultural priming to be a much more likely explanation, though of course I have no direct evidence to give for it.  Except of course we know that light and gases exist, and that cultural priming to interpret stimuli also happens.  Since these are known things to exist and occur, I find them much more likely explanations, though I have no idea what the actual inciting phenomenon are.

I agree with everything you said. However, after now having watched Fravor on both the Fridman podcast and on the 60 Minutes segment, and for the sake of being as charitable as possible, I’m willing to grant that he (Fravor) and the other pilots saw what they say they saw (an unknown aerial object behaving strangely). And yes, this is where speculation should stop and investigation should begin.

Out of curiosity, did you watch the link I posted? I think that seeing Fravor speak at length and in a less formal format than the 60 Minutes segment goes a long way in supporting his credibility. I’m less inclined now to write him off as a hoaxer, a crackpot, an attention-seeker, or an embellisher. Especially when there are additional eye witnesses and radar tracking to take into account. At any rate, I’m still highly skeptical of the whole UFO phenomena, but I am intrigued by these latest Pentagon-confirmed incidents.       

Ron grin

 

 
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25 May 2021 16:23
 

I don’t think he’s a hoaxer, crackpot, or attention-seeker.  I think unintentionally he may be embellishing though.  Our memory is such a faulty thing that characteristics easily get heightened.  Every time you tell the story about that one big fish you caught it gets a 1/4 inch bigger, and not through any fault of your own but purely because the act of recalling the memory and attempting to convey your sense of wonder and amazement you put emphasis on how big it was.  It is literally a problem with our neurology.  I’m not trying to place blame here, I am conveying scientific knowledge of things we understand about how our brains work.  Every time the memory is accessed, it is essentially erased and rewritten by your recent usage of the memory.  How you tell a story can alter the actual memory in your brain.  By telling the story and focusing on how strange the object appeared to move, his memory of those movements is altered.  His memory is not a reliable narrator.

I fully accept that he saw something.  I am not disputing this fact at all.  I am saying that his memory, without evidence that can be investigated, is of no probative value.

 
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26 May 2021 07:27
 
weird buffalo - 25 May 2021 04:23 PM

I don’t think he’s a hoaxer, crackpot, or attention-seeker.  I think unintentionally he may be embellishing though.  Our memory is such a faulty thing that characteristics easily get heightened.  Every time you tell the story about that one big fish you caught it gets a 1/4 inch bigger, and not through any fault of your own but purely because the act of recalling the memory and attempting to convey your sense of wonder and amazement you put emphasis on how big it was.  It is literally a problem with our neurology.  I’m not trying to place blame here, I am conveying scientific knowledge of things we understand about how our brains work.  Every time the memory is accessed, it is essentially erased and rewritten by your recent usage of the memory.  How you tell a story can alter the actual memory in your brain.  By telling the story and focusing on how strange the object appeared to move, his memory of those movements is altered.  His memory is not a reliable narrator.

I fully accept that he saw something.  I am not disputing this fact at all.  I am saying that his memory, without evidence that can be investigated, is of no probative value.

You’re 100% right about memory. I’m well aware of the work of Elizabeth Loftus and others in this area. In fact, I can’t tell you how many times I have echoed pretty much exactly what you’re saying myself in numerous discussions with others on various topics involving memory. However, I would not say that his memory if of no probative value. Certainly it’s of some value. Especially when corroborated by the 3 other pilots. Is it convincing? No. Is the whole thing intriguing? Yes. The radar trackings, the visual sightings, the realtime audio chatter of genuinely stunned pilots and radar technicians, the Pentagon confirmation, etc. all counts for something. That’s all I’m saying.

And if I had to pick the most compelling UAP encounter in all of history from all the stories we’ve ever heard ranging from Betty and Barney Hill, to Travis Walton, to the Phoenix lights, to Roswell, etc. (all of which I handily dismiss for not meeting their burden of proof), I’d say this is probably the most worthy of investigation. Period. And again, trying to glean Fravor’s sincerity, motives, general knowledge, adherence to logic, and aerial expertise (to the extent that I can), I’m inclined to be charitable and grant that something unusual happened that day. If I could somehow quantify where I stand on this Tic Tac stuff, I’d say that on a scale of 1 - 100 I started out as a 2 or 3 (very low confidence that this was anything other than incompetence, technological glitches, gross confabulation, outright hoax, extreme embellishment, etc.), but now after having watched the Fridman podcast I’m probably a 4 (willing to give a wee bit more credence to Fravor and his crew). That’s all I’m saying. I’m still strongly in the camp of UAP/UFO skeptic. 

Again, did you watch any of the link I posted?

Thanks WB,
Ron

[ Edited: 26 May 2021 07:30 by MrRon]
 
weird buffalo
 
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26 May 2021 11:02
 

I watched part of it, I didn’t see anything that made me want to devote several hours to it though.  I’ve got other stuff to listen to that I’m more interested in.

When I say “probative value”, I mean that it is of any significant value for anyone to investigate scientifically.  Unless his memory is sufficient to provide the information necessary to trigger the event again, there’s essentially no means of actually investigating his memory.

 
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29 May 2021 14:25
 

Mr Ron, thanks for posting that youtube video of David Fravor being interviewed by Lex Fridman.

Fravor’s answers and opinions were very informative and convincing. If a credible witness and highly trained commanding officer of an F-18 Super Hornet squadron, such as he, believes that he had a brush with a technology not of this world, I’ll take his word for it.

No one here has mentioned seeing any unusual lights in the sky or other strange phenomenon, which is disappointing. I’ve had two sightings, both near the city of Santa Cruz when I was going to the university there over forty years ago. I’ll describe one sighting.

I had just left a movie theater one evening. I hadn’t been drinking alcohol or using drugs and was quite sober at the time. The night sky was clear. While walking to my car I happened to look up at the sky toward the north. I saw two, blue, fuzzy orbs moving against the night sky in a straight line, each maintaining the same distance and direction as the other. They were moving east to west. I was somewhat startled at seeing them. I gazed around me at other people who were also leaving the movie theater and walking on the sidewalk near me. None of them were looking at the sky. I was tempted to say something and bring their attention to the objects in the sky, but hesitated. The two objects continued to move in the same direction and eventually left my line of sight.

I’ve read since that sighting, that ball lightening has been described as sometimes being blue in color. But what are the odds that two cases of ball lightening are moving in perfectly synchronized movement next to each other, across the sky in a straight line? From what I’ve read about it, ball lightening is erratic in movement and short in duration. The objects I witnessed were the opposite of this description. Ball lightning is also known to accompany electric storms. It was a perfectly calm and clear night sky that evening.

 
 
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29 May 2021 15:19
 

I thought ball lightning was when you got tased in the nuts.

 
 
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29 May 2021 15:23
 
LadyJane - 29 May 2021 03:19 PM

I thought ball lightning was when you got tased in the nuts.

Ouch!

 
 
weird buffalo
 
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29 May 2021 21:58
 
Cheshire Cat - 29 May 2021 03:23 PM
LadyJane - 29 May 2021 03:19 PM

I thought ball lightning was when you got tased in the nuts.

Ouch!

That’s what he said.

 
MrRon
 
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30 May 2021 06:40
 
Cheshire Cat - 29 May 2021 02:25 PM

Mr Ron, thanks for posting that youtube video of David Fravor being interviewed by Lex Fridman.

Fravor’s answers and opinions were very informative and convincing. If a credible witness and highly trained commanding officer of an F-18 Super Hornet squadron, such as he, believes that he had a brush with a technology not of this world, I’ll take his word for it.

You’re welcome, CC. But to be clear… although I agree that Fravor seems to be very credible, I think it’s way premature to assume aliens are responsible. Again, what impressed me was the totality of Fravor’s account combined with the corroborating radar/infrared data, the eyewitness accounts of the other pilots, and the Pentagon’s admission that this incident really did occur. I’m more inclined now than I was before to think that this warrants an investigation. That’s all I’m saying. And of course, it is fun to speculate. But I’m willing to bet that there is a much more earthly (albeit interesting) explanation. Advanced Russian/Chinese aircraft? A new drone technology? Some sort of holographic projection? A new and rare natural phenomenon? A highly secret U.S. disinformation campaign (with Fravor as an unwitting participant)? Who knows.

Ron grin

[ Edited: 30 May 2021 06:45 by MrRon]
 
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30 May 2021 17:15
 

I totally get your position Mr. Ron, and it is a prudent position.

I’m a bit bolder and will go out on a limb and state that I think there is a high probability that these objects are not from this planet and are the product of a non-human mind.

They simply fit no other known categories.

 
 
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